Two Things the Public Needs to Know about Covid-19

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The current coronavirus disease, called Covid-19, is caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. It’s part of a family of coronavirus-caused diseases, of which SARS and MERS had the two most recent epidemics. We believe these diseases are more distantly related to the common cold, which has over 250 strains, and also to influenza.

That’s why you can get a lot of common colds in your life. There are lots of strains. Having and getting over one strain—and therefore gaining immunity to it—doesn’t necessarily protect you from other strains.

Apparently scientists have identified only 19 coronavirus strains so far. SARS and MERS were contained relatively quickly, and neither had truly global scope. The “ME” in the acronym “MERS,” for “Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome,” suggests as much.

But Covid-19 already has been identified in 54 countries. [Scroll down to “Where has it spread?”] So it looks as if the cat is out of the bag: the current virus’ geographic containment is unlikely.

Therefore this virus might be with us for a while, endemic around the globe. It could spin off mutations regularly, just as the common cold and influenza have done, producing new strains that could be more or less dangerous. (Often viruses evolve toward lesser mortality: a virus that kills all its hosts has a dim future.)

This possibility—even probability—has three primary consequences. First, unless we develop a cure, the first lines of defense going forward will be vaccination and good epidemiology, that is, tracing cases locally, quarantining those infected and exposed, and disinfecting places and things that might be contaminated.

Every nation with resources for vaccine development should be working on a vaccine at full speed. May the best one win and help save humanity, or at least our global economy. (For purely economic reasons, this work should be done and/or supported by governments or not-for-profit businesses.)

Vaccine research should focus on spurring our immune systems to target those bright-red viral protrusions in the virus photos, which are the means by which the virus attaches to and enters human cells. Researchers have been pursuing a similar strategy to find a “universal” vaccine for flu, with some success in laboratory trials.

Second, even if we develop a vaccine by year-end, we probably won’t be able to vaccinate everyone. Instead, we’ll use a strategy of encircling geographic pockets of infection, just as China has done without a vaccine, even with huge regions like Hubei Province. It’ll take time to ramp up vaccine production to the point where everyone can get a coronavirus vaccine every year, at least in developed nations, possibly combined with a flu shot.

Third, both while we’re still developing vaccines and in the longer term, there are two absolutely vital things researchers need to determine and tell the public about this virus.

The first, and perhaps the most important, is the viral longevity on things. How long does the virus “live,” i.e., remain active and infectious, on various non-biological surfaces and under varying conditions of temperature, humidity, etc.?

I have read that common-cold viruses are active for at least two hours. In some places workers are now disinfecting elevators every two hours, apparently on the assumption that the same rule applies to the virus for Covid-19.

But that’s not science. Good scientists never assume anything. They test. They do well-controlled experiments and (for something this important) check them at least twice.

Expert, even elite, medical or biological scientists must do these tests. They must be thorough, both in terms of possible substrains of the virus, and in terms of the nature of the surface and its conditions. We should trust no one with an ulterior motive, whether making a profit or avoiding liability, to do this work. The scientists must be financially and psychologically independent of all non-scientific influences.

One the work is done well, and repeated and verified in a couple of different countries, the results could have wonderfully salubrious practical and economic effects.

Let’s say that good science shows the virus never remains active on things for more than two days. That would save the cost of disinfecting things like hotels, houses, aircraft, cruise ships, train cars, buses and cars thought to be contaminated. Just wait the two days, then re-use them safely, without worry or expense.

Not only would this save money. It would give the public confidence in using all these things. Time, they say, heals all wounds. Yet what does the public know about the effectiveness of all those chemical sprays shown on the TV news, or about whether the crew doing the disinfecting is doing it right?

The second major need to know is this: what’s a good disinfectant for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19? What chemicals are not harmful to most people, easily available, and inexpensive, but do the job? Does isopropyl alcohol (rubbing alcohol) work? ethyl (drinking) alcohol? hydrogen peroxide? ammonia? bleach? and at what dilution?

For several years, I’ve carried little spray tubes of 91% isopropyl alcohol around with me whenever a leave the house, to sterilize my hands and even my face periodically. Their spray is like the trademarked product Purell, but much less viscous and so quicker and easier to evaporate. The isopropyl alcohol seems to have worked to reduce my susceptibility to colds and virtually eliminate airborne or contact-spread bacterial diseases. (The isopropyl alcohol doesn’t produce evolved resistance like antibiotics because its effect is less biochemical than physical. It ruptures bacterial cell walls.)

But does rubbing alcohol work against this latest coronavirus? Against any of the genus? I have no idea.

Knowledge, they say, is power. It’s especially important as applied to a virus that you can’t see, but that could make you sick or even kill you. Not only could this knowledge save lives and reduce panic. It could also help save the global economy.

I recently bought two Amazon TV Fire Cubes. After discovering they were made in China, I alcoholed the parts several times before using them, photographed the manual with my cell phone, and threw away the manual and packaging. Was I wasting my time and effort? Would I have done better just to leave the boxes in the garage for a few days?

I don’t know. But a public that has reliable answers to these questions might just be more happy buying things—especially things made in China or where the epidemic is also rampant. An informed and empowered public could help keep the global economy humming while we develop a vaccine and improve our global public-health response. Empowered, it would also feel more in control and less prone to panic.

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