Diatribes of Jay

This blog has essays on public policy. It shuns ideology and applies facts, logic and math to social problems. It has a subject-matter index, a list of recent posts, and permalinks at the ends of posts. Comments are moderated and may take time to appear.

30 August 2024

How to Make Your Political Contributions Matter


Are you sending donations monthly, or at random, to the Democratic Party or to particular candidates who appeal to you? If so, there’s a more impactful and effective way to give your hard-earned money.

We all love those hard-hitting video clips, at least if they’re on our side. But how much do they cost? And what impact to they have? Do they change minds, or do they just push already committed voters on both sides to dig in deeper? What, if anything, do they do to get the over one-third of eligible voters who didn’t bother to vote in 2020 to vote now?

Some relentless investigative reporter or Ph.D. student in political science should take a deep dive into this. In the meantime, I’ll give you my hypothesis, some preliminary data and my common-sense conclusions.

My Hypothesis: My hypothesis is in the form of three syllogisms, as follows:
    The effectiveness syllogism:
      1. Video ads are expensive and mostly negative.
      2. Their negativity turns off people on the other side, rather than attracting them to your side, and they don’t stay with voters.
      3. Therefore, video ads are not worth their high cost.

    The corruption syllogism:
      1. Video ads enrich the PR and advertising firms that produce them, and the media that show them.
      2. “Political operatives” who buy media ads for candidates and causes earn commissions on their ad buys.
      3. Therefore, pecuniary motives from top to bottom corrupt the ostensible purpose of video ads: helping your candidate or cause win.

    The GOTV syllogism:
      1. Nearly all polls show the current presidential candidates within single-digit percentages, mostly within 5%, of each other in all the critical battleground states.
      2. More than one-third (33%) of eligible voters did not vote in 2020.
      3. Therefore, all other things being equal, if you could get just 15% of previously nonvoting eligible nonvoters to vote this year, and for your candidate or cause, you could win in most battleground states.
You can see where these three syllogisms are heading. Not only is Getting Out the Vote (“GOTV”) NOT corrupted by commercial motives at every level. The math of our electorate suggests that it’s far more effective than paying to create ad after ad, throwing them all into the ether, and hoping that, somehow, they will motivate people who are marginalized, cynical, or despairing, or who just don’t care, to get off their dispirited duffs and vote. Common sense suggests that’s a pipe dream.

That’s why, this year, I stopped giving to candidates and (with one exception) to the Dems. I also stopped giving to all my usual charities. I’m funneling all that money, and more, into monthly contributions to fifteen different GOTV organizations. Here they are:

(1) Black Voters Matter Action PAC
(2) Fair Fight Action (Stacey Abrams’ old organization)
(3) New Georgia Project (a spin-off of (2))
(4) Coalition for the Peoples’ Agenda
(5) Democracy for America (DFA)
(6) Democratic National Committee (my single exception to the GOTV rule)
(7) Progressive Turnout Project
(8) VPP
(9) Mijente (Hispanic GOTV organization)
(10) Florida Rights Restoration Coalition (FRRC) Action Fund
(which seeks to restore ex-felons’ voting rights)
(11) Swing Left
(12) Advance the Electorate PAC
(13) Hope Springs from Field
(14) Northeast Arizona Native Democrats
(which works with the 300,000 Navajo or Diné people)
(15) Movement Voter Project
(which works with youth, LGBTQ and other marginalized voters).

If you find this list overwhelming, don’t fret. You can find every one of these organizations on Act Blue, the secure, progressive donation site. That single site has lists of their various branches and affiliates and links to their websites, which explain in detail what all of these groups do and how they do it.

You can contribute to one, some, or all of them on that single site, Act Blue. And Act Blue maintains complete and exhaustive records of your donations, which, as far as I can tell, it keeps forever (over twenty years for me).

If you’re looking for tax deductions for your contributions, you can find that, too. Some, but not all, of these organizations have separate arms that take tax-deductible contributions. And Act Blue will tell you, just for the asking, which of your contributions is/was tax deductible, as part of its meticulous record-keeping.

Why donate this way? Here’s my take. Let’s suppose that it takes $150 a day to support a single eager, young, volunteer GOTV canvasser with food, lodging and transportation. There are 66 days left before the election. If the volunteer works every single day, with no days off, that support would cost $9,900.

What would the campaign get for that? Well, at a mere eight hours a day, with, say, three contacts per hour, that volunteer would have contacted 1,584 voters. Not only would those contacts have been person-to-person and in depth. Each would have produced notes, impressions and data about the elegible voter, revealing how amenable they were to the pitch, how likely they are to vote next time, and what effort the campaign should spend on them during they next cycle, or later in this one.

Now let’s extrapolate a bit. According to this source, the two parties together already spent a total of $471 million on “connected TV” (streaming) and digital video ads during this presidential campaign just through August 23. If we divide that total equally between the parties, and if we assume that the campaign didn’t really begin until Trump accepted the GOP nomination on July 19, the Dems would have spent $235.5 million over a period of 35 days. Extrapolated to the 66 days remaining, that’s $235.5 million times 66/35, or $444 million dollars.

Based on our typical volunteer’s contacting 1,584 voters for $9,900, that same money, if used in GOTV action, would have supported contacting 71 million eligible voters. In comparison, President Biden won the 2020 presidential election in the electoral college by a total margin of 44,000 votes in three battleground states.

Talk about overkill! If all the money spent on those evanscent 30-second video ads went into the GOTV ground game, and if the campaign knew who they are, it could talk personally to each of the voters who cast those 44,000 votes 1,674 times! This shows how lopsided the effectiveness math is for video clips versus ground-game volunteers.

Both the video ads and the ground game are unpredictable. You don’t know how the video ads affect individual voters, and if you poll them to find out, you might just be throwing good money after bad. You also don’t know how individual voters will react to personal visits, let alone repeated ones.

But I know from experience what you get for supporting eager young GOTV volunteers. In 2008, my ex-wife and I provided provided a room in our home for a volunteer in the first Obama campaign. (That’s why my estimate of $150 a day for maintenance cost is probably high: many volunteer GOTV workers get their biggest expense—housing—for free from other volunteers, like us in that Obama campaign.)

Our volunteer was personable and sincere, but we hardly ever saw him. For the whole week he was with us, he got up and left before we arose, and came back well after midnight when we were in bed. We affectionately called him “the Phantom.” We had a short conversation with him when he arrived, and a slightly longer one before he departed, hoping for a job in the first Obama administration.

That’s the kind of devotion and hard work that no expensive video ad can duplicate. And that kind of in-person, eager and sincere “on the ground” contact with voters is, in my view, the best way to win this (or any) election. Many voters who met the Phantom probably still remember him, just as we do, while the video ads they saw have long ago faded from memory.

There’s yet one more reason to support GOTV groups over individual candidates, even the top or most attractive ones. Ad mavens have no way of knowing what motivates voters, whether in groups or individually. Some voters may yearn to vote for Harris and Walz, or against Trump. Others’ sole motivation for voting at all may be supporting or opposing down-ballot, local candidates, or ballot issues like reproductive rights. A GOTV canvasser can size up that sort of motivation in an instant and urge a reluctant voter to support all the Dems. A video ad can’t even begin to address that sort of motivation; it’s just a shot in the dark.

So which do you think is more effective? Putting your money into the corrupt guessing game of video advertising, which is mostly negative and a shot in the dark? Or putting your faith in dedicated volunteers and their person-to-person contacts with reluctant and occasional voters? If you think like I do, you know what to do.


For brief descriptions of and links to recent posts, click here. For an inverse-chronological list with links to all posts after January 23, 2017, click here. For a subject-matter index to posts before that date, click here.

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28 August 2024

Can we Pull Together?

    “We can hang together, or we can hang separately.” — Old Western folk saying.

    “Can’t we all just get along?” — Lament of Rodney King, a Black Angeleno, after videos of his deliberate, sustained and brutal beating by L.A. police in 1991 caused a national furor.

To my mind, the title question of this post will fix our national fate. How we answer it will determine not only the results of this election, but our future as a nation. For as Judy Woodruff’s recent serial PBS feature “America at a Crossroads” proves again and again, we Americans are divided as never before.

Even our Civil War and Vietnam War eras don’t really compare. In each, specific issues divided us: slavery and secession in one, and our first unnecessary, misguided, and ultimately losing war in the other. In each crisis, we had a lot else in common, which enabled us to pull together after our Civil- and Vietnam-War crises. Today, we seem divided about everything, and a major party and its candidate are doing everything they can to broaden and deepen our divisions.

So it’s worth a bit of thought, IMHO, to see how we got here. I have a theory. Read on.

Economically, our times are not so tough. They are nowhere near as tough as they were after the Crash of 2008—a debacle within the memory of most voters. They can’t begin to compare with the Great Depression. Then one-quarter of us were out of work, and millions from the Dust Bowl, stowing all they owned in their beat-up trucks, cars and wagons, migrated West to seek a better life. (John Steinbeck wrote a book about this, called The Grapes of Wrath.)

It may surprise you to hear, but we got out of the Great Depression by helping each other. As Studs Terkel reported in his must-read (and easy-read) Oral History of the Great Depression, farmers left sandwiches on their window sills so that passing migrants would not starve. Many of the same farmers were at risk of losing their farms to foreclosure and a crash in agricultural prices. Yet even while at risk themselves, they helped complete strangers out of the goodness of their hearts.

Government helped, too. It funded the Works Progress Administration (WPA) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), which built roads, bridges and national parks and monuments all over our nation. More important, it gave millions of young men paying jobs to do so, thus boosting our economy and avoiding food riots and a possible revolution. With this productive bootstrapping, our nation emerged from the Great Depression strong and united, just in time to face down the military tyrannies of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

Throughout all this period, our government and our whole society ran on simple principles. Help your neighbor, as Jesus had advised. We are all in this together. We will stand or fall as a nation, not as a collection of warring tribes.

The fact that all that has changed is obvious. But how? In his inaugural address in 1960, JFK called us to “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.” How did we get from that stirring and patriotic call to pull together to the gross selfishness and division that pervade our nation today, let alone our former president’s obvious and continual grifting?

Of course the sixties’ three assassinations didn’t help. In less than six years, three of our greatest leaders were gunned down in public: (1) JFK himself, (2) his progressive and popular brother RFK, and (3) one of our greatest social thinkers ever, and our foremost secular saint, MLK. If any one had lived on, this nation might be far better off, and far less divided, than it is today. But you can’t change history.

Yet I submit that the causes of our division were much deeper, much less “accidental,” and much more sustained than that. Our division today is the natural consequence of a decades-long, deliberate strategy of a major political party—the very one whose candidate is the reductio ad absurdum of division today.

That strategy had three parts. The first is well known and much studied. In the mid-sixties, LBJ had leveraged MLK’s idealism and effective activism to push the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act 1965 through Congress. Those powerful laws began the long, slow and painful process of making Black people full, active and engaged citizens and realizing the long-delayed promise of their Emancipation back in 1863. It was a watershed moment, which only the cooperation of those two supremely skilled leaders, LBJ and MLK, could have brought about.

Then began the backlash. LBJ himself knew and said so. He lamented that his great legislative triumph in civil and voting rights had cost his Dems the South for two generations. So far, it’s been three and counting . . .

But residual, die-hard racism is not the whole story. It’s not, in my view, even the most important part, if only because it’s been open, obvious and in plain view for well over half a century.

The more important parts, I think, were the last two. The second, like the first, was open and obvious. It was a concerned effort to get American citizens to disdain, disrespect and eventually despise their own government. It began with Ronald Reagan’s insistence that “Government is not the solution. Government is the problem.”

With all the power of modern PR and Madison Avenue, which the GOP — the party of business — practically owns (or vice versa?), Republicans under Reagan turned voters against their own government. They portrayed our government as inefficient, wasteful, bumbling and downright evil, allegedly supporting shiftless black and brown people at white people’s expense.

Although absolutely senseless from an analytical or historical perspective, this propaganda ploy has been surprisingly successful politically. It has gotten many ordinary voters to forget completely how the FDA keeps their drugs safe and effective, the EPA keeps their air and water clean (or tries to: my apologies to Flint, MI), the NTSB and FAA keeps their planes (mostly) from falling out of the sky, and the DOJ and EEOC try to tamp down the racism and ethnic division that may yet be our national Achilles Heel. The acme of this seemingly irrational propaganda push came in 2009, when an agitated white senior screamed, “Keep your government hands off my Medicare!”

Yet even this demonization of government was not the end of the GOP’s bag of political tricks. Demonizing government could not have succeeded without an appeal to a much more basic, near-universal human attribute. Turning the tenets of every organized religion on their heads, the GOP made selfishness a virtue.

The appeal was rather subtle. It went like this: The government takes your money in taxes. It wastes a lot of it through bumbling, bureaucracy and inefficiency. The rest of it government spends on things like supporting poor black and brown people, who don’t work hard enough. So you’d be better off — much better off — if you kept your money for yourself. We all would.

This is the message that the GOP has delivered, subtly and indirectly, by dog whistles and innuendoes, ever since 1980. The rallying cry is as simple and powerful as “It’s your money!” (emphasis added)

This is the cry that George W. Bush, perhaps our least intelligent president save the last one, used to win two terms in the White House. But he didn’t dream it up. Our first president to use it was Ronald Reagan.

So there you have it. Divide and conquer: that’s the GOP’s plan since 1980. Make white people jealous of all the others, who are just beginning to taste the American dream. Make everyone hate their own government as wasteful, bumbling, inefficient and evil and (by the way) helping all those black and brown people, but not you. And the ultimate coup de grace, keep your own money; never raise taxes, least of all on the rich, even for our own defense, to fight planetary heating, or as our national debt explodes.

It eludes my comprehension how Evangelicals fall for this. There was Ronald Reagan, with his gravelly voice and undeniable personal charm, putting his metaphorical arms around our common voters, presuming to be their friend. There he was, in plain sight, promoting the “values” of hate, jealously and selfishness that every page of the Old Testament and all of Jesus’ Gospel excoriate. Isn’t that the definition of the Antichrist?

But never mind the philosophical and religious contortions all this involves. It’s a simple matter of divide and conquer — the plan of Julius Caesar.

We all know what happened to him. And we all know that, despite his early demise, the divisions he set in motion led to the ultimate Fall of Rome a few centuries later. It took another millennium, the Protestant Reformation, the advent of Galileo and modern Science, and the Enlightenment for biblical and fundamental human values to creep back into human life.

We humans are small, weak and poorly armed by nature. We don’t have sharp claws or big teeth. We can’t fly or swim for long; nor are we strong or swift. Yet we have become the dominant species on our small planet—enough so to threaten its entire ecology—by working together. Cooperation and empathy are our species’ open secrets.

So the choice ahead is stark. Should we Americans elect leaders who embody the “help your neighbor” pioneer spirit that built this nation and made it great? Or should we vote for candidates who represent the apex of selfishness, grifting, and disdain, if not hate, for others, and the opposite of every traditional and biblical moral value? The choice should not be difficult.


For brief descriptions of and links to recent posts, click here. For an inverse-chronological list with links to all posts after January 23, 2017, click here. For a subject-matter index to posts before that date, click here.

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27 August 2024

The Long-Overdue Counterrevolution in Antitrust


Capitalism without competition is a blueprint for an aristocracy of inherited wealth, worse than Ye Olde England’s aristocracy of landed gentry. It’ll take us time to get there, but we Americans are on a glide path to that end. The trend is most obvious in so-called “tech,” meaning gigantic online businesses jet-propelled by software.

The so-called “Big-Five” of today—Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft—have a hand, directly or indirectly, in almost everything that happens in our nation. These five firms dominate or influence virtually all commercial activity in America, and much of what we Americans do with our free time. They skillfully avoid their own restraint and regulation by means of massive lobbying in Washington and their control of online information. How they manage information and lies may determine who wins the upcoming election and whether we can keep our Republic.

That’s why the current counterrevolution in antitrust law could help save our democracy. Antitrust’s primary goal and raison d’etre is keeping powerful capitalists from creating an unbreakable aristocracy of wealth and power. The law’s means to that end is simple: let free competition thrive. Let clever new businesses take down the old behemoths, in a continual process of growth, failure, and rebirth.

Don’t take my word for it. Take Thomas Jefferson’s and Thurgood Marshall’s. Jefferson was hypocritical, to say the least, in owning slaves but touting equality. But he was also the deepest thinker among our Founders and, apart from Ben Franklin, the only one who cherished science. He founded our first state university, the University of Virginia, and our first patent office.

Jefferson knew about the old English “Statute of Monopolies,” enacted in 1623. Not only had it outlawed monopolies. It had also given citizens the right to sue them for three times the amount of damages caused by their misdeeds.

This “treble damage” remedy was later adopted in our own antitrust laws. The treble remedy reflected the economic and social importance of suppressing unfair economic domination.

Jefferson wanted to include a similar prohibition in our Bill of Rights. In 1788, he wrote James Madison a famous letter to that effect. He argued that “it is better to . . . abolish standing armies in time of peace, and Monopolies, in all cases, than not to do it in any.”

But the correspondence soon turned to the related question of temporary monopolies to protect intellectual property, i.e., patents and copyrights. Madison convinced Jefferson that, as Jefferson put it, “ingenuity deserves a liberal encouragement.” So our Constitution contains an explicit provision, in Article I, Section 8, Clause 8, giving Congress power to grant patents and copyrights. But nothing in our Constitution, let alone in our precious Bill of Rights, outlaws monopolies or explicitly authorizes Congress to do so.

My apologies for the slang, but in this instance our Founders got it bass ackwards. England’s Statute of Monopolies had outlawed them in 1623. England’s first copyright law, the Statute of Anne, came nearly a century later, in 1710. It allowed copyrights as a limited exception to the general prohibition of monopolies. In our law, the narrow exception for intellectual property became the constitutional rule. We did not have a national prohibition against monopolies until Congress enacted the Sherman Antitrust Act in 1890, a century after our Founding.

So if slavery, the Senate’s gross mal-apportionment (getting radically worse with time), the electoral college, the minority-backed presidents it produces, and the filibuster don’t convince you that our Founders were all too human, and not divinely inspired, maybe this sad tale of antitrust law will tip the scales for you. Our Founders were indeed proponents of the Enlightenment, but their primitive take was far from the last word on the subject.

As Jefferson had dimly realized before he got distracted, unchecked private economic power can be as oppressive as unchecked political power. Thurgood Marshall also recognized this point. He’s best known for having been the first Black Supreme-Court Justice, and for his role (as an advocate) in the Brown v. Board of Education decision that (slowly) desegregated our public schools, beginning in 1954. But he was also smart enough to recognize the importance of antitrust law as an economic foundation for democracy and liberty.

Here’s what he wrote in 1972, in the case of US v. Topco Associates, Inc.:
“Antitrust laws in general, and the Sherman Act in particular, are the Magna Carta of free enterprise. They are as important to the preservation of economic freedom and our free enterprise system as the Bill of Rights is to the protection of our fundamental personal freedoms. And the freedom guaranteed each and every business, no matter how small, is the freedom to compete—to assert with vigor, imagination, devotion, and ingenuity whatever economic muscle it can muster.”
To round out this longish introduction, I’ll quote perhaps the single highest authority on American antitrust law, Senator John Sherman of Ohio, the Senator for whom the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890 is named. Here’s the peroration of his speech on the Senate floor, pushing his bill that became our first antitrust law:
“The popular mind is agitated with problems that may disturb social order, and among them all none is more threatening than the inequality of condition, of wealth, and opportunity that has grown within a single generation out of the concentration of capital into vast combinations to control production and trade and to break down competition. These combinations already defy or control powerful transportation corporations and reach State authorities. They reach out their Briarean arms to every part of our country. They are imported from abroad. Congress alone can deal with them, and if we are unwilling or unable there will soon be a trust for every production and a master to fix the price for every necessity of life.“
21 Cong. Rec. 429. (The unusual reference to “Briarean arms” apparently involved a meme, current at the time, of a fictional multi-armed monster similar to a Hindu god or goddess.)

Perhaps more to the point of oligarchy was Sherman’s later remark about one of the big industrial combinations: “If the concerted powers of this combination are intrusted to a single man, it is a kingly prerogative, inconsistent with our form of government, and should be subject to the strong resistance of the State and national authorities . . . .” 21 Cong. Record at 2457.

Sherman was the father of our US antitrust law. His words make its primary purpose crystal clear. It’s not to promote one or another modern economic theory. It’s certainly not to promote “consumer welfare.” It’s to restrain the abusers of capital from accumulating and commanding excessive private wealth and overweening economic power that threatens democracy. It’s to provide a check and a balance on an aristocracy of wealth, similar to the checks and balances among our three branches of government.

The EU seems to have gotten these points better than we do. It named its counterpart to our “antitrust law” “competition law,” calling a spade a spade. (Our law’s odd title arose from the fact that most nineteenth-century abusers of economic power came in the legal form of “trusts.”) And the EU’s counterpart to our Sherman Act is subtitled “abuse of dominant position,” which more accurately describes the real target of our corresponding law.

Late in the last century, conservative economists, led by the late Milton Friedman (who died in 2006), created a powerful myth. Antitrust and competition law, they said, was designed to enhance “consumer welfare.”

What they meant, in essence, was lowering prices for consumers. No matter how they do it, the myth ran, corporations should have free rein to combine, grow bigger and push smaller firms around, as long as, at the end of the day, consumers see lower prices.

This myth gave the oligarchs yet another reason—besides “globalization,” and “free trade (allegedly) making everybody better off” — to sell our factories, jobs, and technology to China, whose low-paid workers and weak environmental protection facilitated low-cost manufacturing. It also led to giving our Big Five tech firms a virtual pass on the ground that most of their advertising-based online services come at the lowest possible price to the average user: free. It was almost as if Milton Friedman had anticipated the advent of the Internet after he had proposed his price-based theory.

But he and other so-called “conservative” economists ignored three things. The first was the history of our antitrust laws and the reasons Congress enacted them. Prices were mentioned, but only in the context of vast private concentrations of economic power fixing them, rather than free and competitive markets. The second thing was common sense: when privately run financial castles in the sand get bigger and bigger, they inevitably hurt more ordinary people when they fall. “Too big to fail” was not in 2008, and never will be, a measure of firms in a properly functioning capitalist economy. The third thing the myth ignored was cause and effect: when ordinary people get brutalized by a rising financial/industrial oligarchy, they try to get even, and the results are not pretty. See: the French Revolution; the Russian Revolutions (there were two!); and the apotheosis of Donald J. Trump.

As Justice Thurgood Marshall said, the purpose of our antitrust laws is to preserve and protect free competition. Period. It’s not to advance some abstract theory of economics from the University of Chicago, even if its proponent won a Nobel Prize in economics for something else. It was never about abstract economic theory; it was always about stemming the rise of excessively concentrated economic power.

Even in economic theory, competition has more than one face. Of course there is competition for customers, aka “consumers.” But there’s also competition for supplies and other “factors of production,” including land, energy and labor. Competition for labor may be the most important competition of all, if only because the vast majority of people in our democracy work for others, and many, if not most, ultimately work today for the oligarchs of capital.

When big corporations, including big “tech,” have to compete hard for labor, that improves workers’ position in life. It also improves democracy by giving workers a stake in the survival and improvement of our economy, our government and our way of life.

So free competition among businesses for workers, if not precisely the existence and power of labor unions, is among the primary purposes of American antitrust law and European competition law. That’s one reason why the recent decision of a Trump-appointed judge, striking down the FTC’s rule against non-compete agreements for ordinary employees, was not just a bad decision, but fundamentally, radically wrong. (The very statute that created the FTC includes a mandate to promote competition, and non-compete agreements by definition subvert it.) As a recent op-ed piece in the New York Times reports, the powers that be, including the Democratic Party and even a few individuals in the Republican Party, are beginning to recognize this big truth.

In precise economic parlance, the word “monopoly” connotes a sole or dominant position in a seller’s market. Another modern word, “monopsony,” connotes a dominant position in a buyer’s market. That’s the kind of power that allows Wal Mart to strangle many of its small suppliers by pressuring them relentlessly to lower their prices. It’s also the kind of power that the big growers, for example, in California’s Central Valley, exert over migrant farm laborers who do the hard work of planting and harvesting their crops.

Senator Sherman probably did not know the word “monopsony.” Maybe it didn’t exist in 1890. But his words, quoted above, leave no doubt that he pushed through his Sherman Act in part to restrain the power and abuses of monopsonists in markets for labor (including local and specialized markets), land, energy and supplies.

Milton Friedman and his “Chicago School” of so-called “conservative” abstract thinkers forged a revolution in antitrust economics. Their near-capture of our politics and political imagination for two generations had John Sherman turning over in his grave.

More than that, it has had disastrous practical consequences. These include the offshoring of 60,000 American factories, the layoffs of their workers, the drying up of many midwestern factory towns, the so-called “populist” political “revolution” led by Donald Trump, the pervasive corruption of our society, the hollowing of our on-shore industrial and research base, and the existential threat to our democracy and national security that all this portends.

But now we are seeing the beginnings of a counterrevolution. Just as we, quite rightly, demand “Say their names!” of people unlawfully killed by racist police brutality, we ought to know the names of policymakers and thinkers leading it.

Lina Khan is Chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which has a statutory mandate to promote both free competition and consumer welfare. She’s pushing, against irrational resistance from Trump-appointed judges, the simple notion that “competition” is not limited to that for consumers’ money.

A professor teaching Antitrust Law at Columbia University School of Law, Tim Wu is the leader of the intellectual counterrevolution as applied to “big tech.” In particular, he’s the one who’s explained, in detail, how “big tech” has unlawfully suppressed competition on the buyers’ side, in labor markets, in suppliers’ markets and in inter-firm markets for such things as “apps” and other auxiliary software. He’s now a Special Assistant to President Biden for Technology and Competition Policy.

You needn’t literally say their names, because protests will not win this counterrevolution. It will be fought in our Executive Branch, in the FTC, in our courts, and in the halls of academia, just as was Milton Friedman’s revolution that laid us low. But you should know their names and the importance of the counterrevolution that they’re now leading.

It’s not just about money and economic power, as was the first antitrust revolution in our first Gilded Age. It’s also about control over information, politics and how we think. It’s even about how we bring up our kids. Will they become alienated, bullied and depressed social misfits staring obsessively at their mobile devices, and losing much-needed sleep to do so? Or will they grow as properly socialized children with normal in-person social and athletic lives, and maybe even a touch of empathy? The jury on that is very much still out.

Senator Sherman didn’t say so. But if he were alive today, he would surely extend his “Briarean arms” analogy to our media, and to their over-the-top political lies and deliberate or negligent disinformation campaigns. And once he had caught up by reading George Orwell, he would understand that only vigorous enforcement of his laws (and later competition laws like the Clayton Act, which specifically addresses mergers) could prevent the advent of Big Brother for real.

The so-called “Middle Ages” really were the Dark Ages. For a millennium after the Fall of Rome, a single institution—the all-powerful Catholic Church—dominated all of Western culture. True, it kept alive the ancient wisdom of the Greek philosophers, Jesus, and his disciples, plus the skills of writing and reading. But it quashed all further human and societal development. It told ordinary people, their leaders, and even the aristocracy and kings what to think. Science, democracy, equality, and the notion of human rights had to await the Protestant Reformation and the Enlightenment that followed.

If we let our “big tech” oligarchs perform a similar role in our third millennium, the results wouldn’t be similar. They’d likely be far more catastrophic. The Catholic Church’s domination of the Dark Ages led mostly to stasis, a dreary form of stability. In contrast, domination by our diverse and rival oligarchs would hardly enforce a single mode of thought. Just consider Elon Musk, who, like Bertrand Russell, thinks of eleven impossible things before breakfast.

Instead, domination by economic aristocrats would put our national and geopolitical divisions on steroids, while catapulting the oligarchs to a level of wealth, influence and dominance that even the medieval Catholic Church never achieved. All the while, the oligarchs, by controlling what we feel and think we know, would continue to divide us while augmenting their wealth and power and suppressing business rivals.

The world they proffer is looking a lot like what Orwell predicted in his prescient but premature novel 1984: a world divided into battling blocs, each ruled by a tyrant with absolute control over information and, most likely, nuclear weapons. What could possibly go wrong? As thing stand today, the only wild card would be massive global migration fueled by self-sustaining planetary heating.

If that prospect does not cheer you, then pay attention to Lina Khan and Tim Wu. Our species, let alone the world’s most powerful nation, does not need a new inherited oligarchy based on obscene wealth derived from software and information, instead of land. Few things can avoid such a dark future as reliably as zealous enforcement of our antitrust and the EU’s competition laws, but as their framers intended them, not as academic economists water them down. So if you want a brighter future for your kids and grandkids, as well as your country, Khan’s and Wu’s counterrevolution is one that you must help them win.

Endnote: Just for the record, I taught intellectual property (IP) law intensively and antitrust law (in full courses) occasionally in law schools from 1986 though 2010, or for 24 years. My point about our Founders getting the relationship between IP and antitrust law “bass ackwards” is discussed in greater detail, and with many more historical citations, in the first few pages of this law-review article on patent policy.

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24 August 2024

How our Media are Pushing Domestic Armageddon and Destroying Our Democracy

    “Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad.”—ancient proverb, attributed to Euripides, but refined over the centuries.

    “Congress shall make no law . . . abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press . . .” — U.S. Constitution, Amendment 1 (emphasis added)

    “Who will guard the guardians themselves?” — Ancient Roman query, translated from the Latin (“Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?”)

    It’s now clear to me who’s destroying our democracy and our civic peace. It’s not Donald Trump. It’s not the Proud Boys and their fellow white supremacists. It’s not the “left-wing extremists” that Trump and his sycophants rail against, even those who say dumb things like “Defund the Police.”

    All these are doing their parts, of course. But they are mere accomplices, if not dupes. They are products of a fundamentally corrupt system that promotes, values and cherishes money, fame, celebrity and notoriety. In that system, our so-called “news” media pursue these goals by a single means: reinforcing citizens’ confirmation bias. And the media—all of them—are willing, if not eager, participants in that system.

    The precise mechanism of their treachery is absurdly simple, almost syllogistic. They are out for themselves. Virtually all of them have become fundamentally corrupt. The unwritten code of professionalism and service of “truth” that once ruled the old NBC (without the modern nod to so-called “tech”), CBS and ABC lies trampled in the dust. It’s been overrun in a mad rush for audience, ratings, fame, status, and anchor/pundit salaries. Trump’s lust for crowd size has suborned us all.

    For me, the dime of these conclusions dropped quite recently. Three previously unknown or unrealized facts drove them home.

    The first was the revelation, made incidentally in an op-ed on another subject, that political operatives earn commissions on their political ad buys. Think about that. Our media incentivize pols to “invest” in their divisive, fear-mongering, thirty-second video clips by giving the pols, or the “operatives” who spend their campaign money, a “piece of the action.”

    What could possibly be more corrupt? This revelation confirmed my earlier decision to donate only to GOTV organizations, like the ones in my endnote below, and not to support political parties or candidates directly. I don’t want my donations to promote manipulative thirty-second video clips that do little more than incite division, fear, alarm and hate.

    My second and third awakenings came just this week. It’s hard to tell which was more important and decisive.

    When we watched the third night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, my wife and I started with PBS. But as we watched the proceedings (in arrears through streaming), we noticed something strange. My beloved PBS was, in effect, censoring what I watched.

    Of course it would show the “headliners,” including Bill Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, and Tim Walz. But the “lesser” orators, including names like Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Pennsylvania Governor (and one-time VP contender) Josh Shapiro, were often omitted. Why? To let the usual suspects—anchors Geoff Bennett and Amna Nawaz, pundits David Brooks and Jonathan Capehart, and poll-reporter Amy Walter—do their thing. Apparently justifying the salaries of these broadcast personalities was more important than informing the public fully about something that happens only once every four years, and in the case of a vice-president replacing a sitting American president as candidate, once in American history.

    To be fair, I don’t remember precisely which speakers were “overwritten” by pundit-speak. But I do remember switching to MSNBC soon after “tuning in” to the Convention with PBS and having PBS omit a speaker I thought worth hearing. Apparently MSNBC had decided to make its profit the “old-fashioned” way, by reducing costs rather than bloating revenue. It provided a direct feed of the proceedings, including all the speakers, without interruption or comment. Probably that required only a single camera-person and a video switching console.

    When our in-arrears watching of all the speakers concluded, I was dumbstruck. Not only had I seen several young, powerful, intelligent, incisive and eloquent speakers, all totally unlike Joe Biden. I had seen an entire evening whose major theme was in direct contrast to the calls to Armageddon from our bomb throwers, haters, dividers and all those divisive, negative thirty-second video clips. What I had seen was mostly calls to listen to the opposition, persuade them, not insult or belittle them, and—above all—to be good neighbors as you would have them be unto you. (Sound familiar?)

    Look, I love Geoff Bennett, Amna Nawaz and PBS’ diverse set of reporters. I particularly love Bennett, whose resonant voice and perfect diction helps justify my putting off getting hearing aids. But when PBS buries a consistent and much-needed message of domestic tranquility and neighborliness, delivered for an entire evening by a major party, so that its pundits can bloviate, something is seriously wrong with our media universe.

    The final dime dropped when, at my wife’s urging, I listened to an interview of The Pope of Probability, Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise and the 528 poll-aggregation service, on KQED, the San Francisco Outlet of National Public Radio. Silver confirmed that our modern electoral polls are riddled with systematic bias. (Unfortunately, in this podcast you can’t push a slider but have to wait for the clock to time to the point listed below.)

    Not only that. The systematic bias is pretty much the same kind that led the media to mis-predict Thomas Dewey’s “win” over Harry Truman in 1948. In their sampling, pollsters are over-representing voters with landline telephones and other less sophisticated means of communication. Then they “correct” for this known systematic bias by “seat of the pants” guesswork, and they all do it mostly the same way.

    For example, according to Silver, if a poll is finally able to contact an elusive young Hispanic, it weights the answers by a factor of three. On the other hand, it underweights the views of old white women, eager to answer calls and state their views, by one-half. Can we all say “seat of the pants”? (Wait for 24:20 on the timer and listen.)

    What could possibly go wrong? I’m 79, and my wife is 78. I gave up my land line five years ago, she about two or three. Deluged by unwanted robocalls, I set my cell phone, over a year ago, to dump into voice mail all calls from numbers not in my personal directory. So did she.

    We’ve both been retired for a decade or more. We, who presumably have time on our hands, and are hardly busy growing our careers or raising kids, protect ourselves from robocalls, and coincidentally from pollsters. Then what about the millions of Millennials and Gen-Z people who have no time at all for this nonsense, and who are far more sophisticated than we seniors in ducking unwanted calls? You think the pollsters are properly representing them? If you do, I’ve got a wall on our Mexican border that will instantly solve all our migration problems to sell you.

    This not just a simple sampling issue. It’s a fundamental problem with modern polling. Although they try to use Internet channels, most pollsters take the easy (and cheap) way out by contacting people by phone. But now young people communicate often, if not primarily, by text, e-mail and “memes” on social media. Or they bypass the telephone system altogether, using Internet video apps like FaceTime and Zoom. Are pollsters even investing money considering how to poll that?

    A moment’s thought reveals the clear trend of this massive systematic bias. Who is more likely to vote Democratic? A senior in the country who still has a landline because no one (including robo-callers) calls her much? A middle-age voter with a cellphone that blocks no calls? Or a city-dwelling Millennial or Gen-Z voter who knows well how to duck unsolicited calls and is busy with a career, a nascent family and an otherwise all-encompassing online life?

    Let’s get real. Today’s polls are meaningless. They are based on broken, outmoded methods and “follow the herd” guesses on how to correct known systematic biases. And pollsters can’t do more to correct systematic bias because: (a) doing so would be horrendously expensive; and (b) they don’t have a clue how to do it.

    But even this is not all. What’s the effect of all this systematic bias, which over-polls the old and the isolated, and leaves the media-wise and plugged-in stuck without a voice? Of course it overestimates the likely vote for “conservatives” and MAGA voters, just as it underestimates the votes of minorities, the young, independents and moderates.

    And what’s the practical effect of these bad polls riddled with systematic bias? It’s precisely what we are seeing in our divided country day after day. Based on the bad polls, Trump voters think they are winning. Based on the bad polls and the consequent breathless doom-saying of progressive pundits, Trump voters think they are winning. So if and when Harris and Walz win, Trump voters will have every reason to think they’ve been robbed and to perpetrate another January 6, or worse, all over again.

    We might get lucky, and it might not happen. I hope it won’t. But this possible outcome is based on simple, foreseeable cause and effect.

    So who’s at fault? Our media, all of them. Even PBS. For all of them push flawed polls as gospel, with the usual disclaimers than no one heeds because everyone in the audience wants to know the future, and polls are all we’ve got.

    Political polls have become the modern equivalent of the Gypsy fortune teller with her ouija board, but at infinitely greater scale and with infinitely greater social impact. And our media — all of them — sell poll results relentlessly in the search for ever-greater audiences and ever more “news,” and because if some media don’t do it, others will.

    Why do our media work like that? Because most are private and work for profit, and even the nonprofits like PBS work for audiences. Predictions sell, no matter how flawed. Division sells, as Fox has proved so well by pandering relentlessly to its audience’s prejudices, fears, hate and alarm.

    A still, small voice of conscience tells perhaps the best of our media executives that all this is corrupt and fundamentally wrong. But it gets drowned out by careerism, the quest for ratings and the fame, celebrity and high salaries that come with them.

    The media—our people’s eyes and ears—are blinded by self-interest. Our government and our leaders can do nothing about it because our First Amendment, which is the prime directive of our Constitution, unambiguously yells “hands off!”

    If alive today, Euripides would scream a warning. But even he would throw up his hands at our absolute legal and constitutional impediment to collective action involving government.

    Will our First Amendment be the “Catch-22” that relegates our American democracy to the dustbin of history? Will it legally bar anyone from putting in place a system that incentivizes “news” that is true and accurate and makes common sense, let alone a system that requires it?

    At the moment, any such salubrious system seems unlikely, maybe impossible. If so, our species’ next go at democracy might learn the lesson that absolutism in any form, even in defense of freedom of speech, is never a good idea. To reach that point of enlightenment, our species, with its current media, might have to survive another extended Dark Age, replete with massive migration driven by planetary heating, far worse than the Dark Ages after the Fall of Rome.

    Endnote on GOTV Donees. Here are the fourteen GOTV organizations to which I donate monthly through Act Blue, the secure progressive donation site: (1) Black Voters Matter Action PAC; (2) Fair Fight Action (Stacey Abrams’ old organization); (3) New Georgia Project (a spin-off of (2)); (4) Coalition for the Peoples’ Agenda; (5) Democracy for America (DFA); (6) Democratic National Committee; (7) Progressive Turnout Project; (8) VPP; (9) Mijente (Hispanic GOTV organization); (10) Florida Rights Restoration Coalition (FRRC) Action Fund (which seeks to restore ex-felons’ voting rights); (11) Swing Left; and (12) Advance the Electorate PAC; (13) Hope Springs from Field; and (14) Northeast Arizona Native Democrats (which works with the 300,000 Navajo or Diné people).

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23 August 2024

She Hit it Out of the Park


For anyone who doubts Kamala Harris’ qualifications or readiness to serve as our 47th president, I have a single prescription. Watch her as she accepted her nomination last night. Click on the MSNBC feed here, set the timer at 4:04, make sure you have some quiet time without distractions, and watch.

By the time you finish the 38-minute speech, you will have no doubt that Harris is not just a brilliant lawyer, incisive thinker, quintessentially practical leader, and a good person. You will also think, as I do, that at this very moment, she is one of the most skilled pols we Dems have. You will thank Joe Biden not just for stepping down, but also for allowing her to take the initiative and use her heretofore mostly hidden leadership skills to grab the top spot without a divisive contest or floor fight.

Why do I think this? In her single speech, Harris expounded on all the things that we Americans need most: faith in ourselves, confidence in our fundamental principles, decency, kindness, empathy, compassion and, above all, unity. She discussed all these values without once demeaning or offending even the smallest class of potential voters. Every category of voters she touched upon—our middle class, working people, people of color, union members, our armed forces and veterans, our entrepreneurs, and our scientists—she cheered, exalted, and inspired.

Neither the word “deplorables”—nor any hint of negativity—ever passed her lips, except with respect to her opponent. Him she savaged in all the right and just ways, with memorable phrasing and lots of punch.

But she kept her eye on the ball: the endless potential of our nation, our people and our system, if only we have good leadership. She even threaded the needle on Israel, Gaza and Palestine with such skill, empathy and balance that the huge, diverse crowd erupted in wild cheering, and not a single “boo.” I wouldn’t dare spoil it for you by trying to summarize it.

Once they’ve analyzed Harris’ speech, her opponent’s “operatives” will no doubt try to renege on his pledge to debate her September 10. If he keeps that pledge, and if Harris doen’t fall sick as Biden apparently had before his debate, the debate will effectively end the campaign. She will wipe the floor with him, and he will likely reveal his increasing derangement.

But don’t take my word for it. Watch the speech. Behold and rejoice. We have a superbly qualified and consummately skilled candidate, not just as a top-notch courtroom lawyer, but as a thoughtful, strategic pol. We Dems are baaaack! America is baaaack! And every color in our beautiful national rainbow now has a stake in Harris’ election.


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21 August 2024

Policy versus Vision: Price Gouging


In several recent essays, I’ve been trying to expound on the differences between policies and vision (The best one is here.) In the past, I’ve made the mistake of implicitly criticizing our Democratic candidate and have drawn friendly fire.

But the point is general. It applies to both parties and both campaigns. The campaign that best “gets it” is likely to win this most consequential election in US history.

Already the distinction has been important, if not decisive, in the victories of Bill Clinton over George Herbert Walker Bush in 1992, of George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000 and over John Kerry in 2004, and of Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008. This year, it could make the difference between continuing and ending our American Experiment.

The distinction between policy and vision is simple but profound. Policy is the means to an end. Vision is the end itself. It’s the difference between “Deterring Aggression” or “Peace through Strength,” on the one hand, and “A World Without War” on the other.

If the end is attractive, as it usually is, articulating a vision succinctly can be a powerful campaign tool. Examples of effective visions are George W. Bush’s “No Child Left Behind” and “[Home] Ownership Society” in 2004 (ironically offered mere years before the Crash of 2008 and its millions of mortgage foreclosures).

Like it or not, Trump’s annoying slogan “Make America Great Again” is another effective vision: it helped him win the first time. It illustrates, perhaps as does no other, the value of generality and the superfluousness of specifics.

Examples on the Democratic side are fewer because the GOP and its candidates have been much better at creating simple visions. No doubt the GOP’s supremacy in this vital political arms race is due in part to the GOP being the “party of business.” As such, it can draw on American business’ vast expertise in marketing, advertising and promotion.

Whatever the reason, stating and promoting visions is a skill that the Dems can learn. It’s never too late to apply it and win. Turning up one’s nose at this vital political skill is precisely the kind of mindless elitism and snobbery that has been threatening to make the Dems a minority party for most of my adult life—despite clear supremacy in policies to make ordinary people’s lives better. It does nothing to have more and better policies if you can’t convince voters that you do.

The issue of price gouging by business in a time of general inflation is a classic case in point. “Price gouging” is a universal no-no. The very term “gouging” evokes a boxer trying to gouge out his rival’s eyes, surely a violation of the Marquis of Queensbury’s Rules for Boxing. Who in God’s creation is for price gouging? No one except the gougers.

So promoting a vision like “Fair Prices,” “Stop Price Gouging” or “No Price Gouging” is a no-brainer. In a time when increases in the prices of groceries, although moderating somewhat recently, are on everyone’s mind, it’s a powerful vision. No one can bad-mouth it.

But the GOP has made an end run around the Dems on this issue. It’s done so not by attacking the vision directly, but by attacking what Republicans see as the underlying policy: price controls.

It doesn’t really matter whether Vice-President Harris has actually advocated price controls. The mere accusation that she has has changed the subject from the evil, price gouging, to the Vice-President’s realism and economic knowledge.

It’s classic free-market economics that price controls don’t work. In desperation, during the massive inflation caused by the Arab Oil Embargo, even Richard Nixon tried them, and they didn’t work for him.

I think that limited, carefully targeted and temporary price controls might work. But that’s a conversation fit for economic experts. It would make ordinary voters’ eyes glaze over. By attacking Harris on her presumed policy—price controls—whether or not she actually advocated them, the GOP has changed the subject from a universally desired end to Harris’ economic competence and the details of market theory.

The fact is, there are several ways to address price gouging besides price controls. The first is simple shaming. It would be hard for any firm to price gouge on groceries across the entire country, simply because, in most markets, there is no monopoly or even duopoly over food. So most price gouging, if and when it occurs, likely occurs in limited geographic markets and in limited time frames. Simply by calling out a price gouger in a limited market, the government could encourage consumers to boycott that producer and rivals to enter that market.

If the government wished to be even more active, it could arrange to transport or subsidize imports into that market to increase supply, lower prices, and discipline the gouger. And all this could be done without a hint of government specifying what the market price should be, i.e., of “price controls.”

A second effective approach to price gouging would be more robust enforcement of our antitrust laws. Antitrust laws are designed to protect competition from self-interested producers and sellers. They outlaw monopolists abusing their market power and supposedly rival producers colluding to raise prices.

Our Antitrust Division of the DOJ, and a now-enlightened FTC, could punish price gouging by creating a “rapid response force” to go after it legally. (Explicit price-fixing among competitors is a jailable offense.) The fact our antitrust authorities have been virtually asleep at the switch for a generation presents no general impediment to this remedy.

More generally, the government can stop price gouging everywhere by addressing the economic conditions that make it possible. Usually those conditions are temporary and transient, which is why the government has to act fast. But there’s absolutely no insuperable impediment to the government doing so. And even the government’s preparation and threat to do so would be a powerful disincentive to gouging in local markets.

But the main point here is a much, much simpler one. As the old saw goes, there’s always “more than one way to skin a cat.” By allowing the GOP to shift the focus from fighting gouging to price controls, the Dems’ campaign has taken a hard and needless jab to the chin.

“Fair Pricing” and “No Price Gouging” are visions that every voter can get behind. How to implement those visions gets down in the weeds of economic policy, where most voters have no desire to go. By keeping her eye on the good vision, with realistic policies to realize it in reserve, Vice-President Harris can hold the high ground and win this election, on this narrow issue as on so many others.

Finding exactly how best to realize the vision is a question for Harris and her team to address once in the White House. No one, except for gougers themselves, is for price gouging.


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20 August 2024

The Dems’ Day-1 Themes


In case you missed it, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago got off to a good start tonight. It was an evening of powerful themes, each of which we can expect to see throughout the remaining 77 days of the campaign.

The main theme of this first day, as planned, was simply “Thank you, Joe!” It was a massive show of gratitude to our sitting President, who had saved our democracy four years ago and recently had had the superb judgment—and the humility—to maximize our chances of saving it again by stepping down.

Hillary Clinton, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Georgia Senator the Reverend Raphael Warnock, South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn, First Lady Jill Biden and the Biden’s daughter sounded this theme. Joe himself amped it up with his keynote speech, reciting his accomplishments and, with equal fervor, the Demagogue’s failure to deliver on promises and monumental character flaws.

Hillary Clinton’s speech was one of the best I’ve ever seen her give. It made me wonder whether, if she had spoken with such conviction, and so-little “triangulation,” in her 2016 campaign, we might have avoided all the agony of the following four years.

The second theme of the night centered around Kamala Harris herself. It began with the phrase “for the People,” used to introduce her (as a prosecutor) in the many courtrooms in which she had appeared. As the evening progressed, the scope of this concept broadened from prosecuting drug dealers and rogue bankers to protecting ordinary people from injustice, prejudice and hard times. A vision of her as a protector of The People’s human and economic rights began to emerge.

At times, the theme “for the People” morphed into something more specific: improving everyone’s lot of by raising up the middle class and those below. Middle-class welfare also dominated the President’s recitation of the accomplishments of his presidency.

The last major theme was simple and perhaps the most powerful of all: unity. The one-time progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gave an impressive but surprisingly tame speech, emphasizing the same general themes but keeping clear of allegedly “left-wing” goals. PBS commentators explained that, in her second term in Congress, she had knuckled down and learned the art of legisating, unlike the right-wing bomb throwers in the so-called “Freedom Caucus.”

Two other themes, though not explicit, pervaded the Dems’ first night. For want of a better word, I would call the first “authenticity.”

Neither Clyburn nor the President is a brilliant orator. The President, in particular, apparently wrote his own speech, replete with his trademark “Bidenisms” such as “Look!” and “Think about that!” Clyburn did a workmanlike job delivering (and perhaps writing) his own. But what came through, big-time, for both was their commitment to and love of this nation, and their absolute priority in putting its destiny above their own ambitions.

The second unstated theme was in the hall itself: inclusivity. In contrast to the sea of white, 55+ males wearing cowboy hats at the Republican Convention, the people who filled the Democratic hall were of all ages, races and types. MSNBC’s camera even caught a dark-skinned man, apparently a Sikh, wearing a turban. The Dems’ convention hall gave living evidence of our national credo: “all . . . are created equal.”

All in all, the first night came over as a powerful demonstration of unity, common purpose, determination and hope. It seemed, to me at least, that master strategists like Biden himself, Harris, Clyburn, and the campaign staffs of the Obama team had replaced the Democrats’ usual circular firing squad with a unified, professional, resourceful and winning team.

Without evidence to the contrary, I surmise that Biden, with his unfortunate stutter but unmatched experience and guile, had timed his stepping down and his anointment of Harris precisely for this purpose: no unseemly and disruptive race for the top job, but a smooth, unified, well-funded and concerted push to the finish.

I never thought I would see the usually disorganized Dems as a campaign juggernaut. But they’re beginning to look that way. Thank you, Joe, indeed!


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17 August 2024

VP Harris’ Qualifications


We live in an age of “memes” and “vibes.” The Web besieges us algorithmically with “clickbait” thousands of times a day. So most of us have forgotten, if we ever learned, how to focus on simple, basic facts.

Three simple facts now assume enormous importance. First, the coming election will determine whether American democracy and the Western Enlightenment continue. Second, the job of President of the United States is the most important, demanding job our species has. Third, in recent years, the political experience and qualifications of our presidents have generally trended down, leading to Donald J. Trump’s zero years in elective office before taking the top job.

In March 2007, I published a table showing how Barack Obama’s experience in elective office was, though not on the high side, within the range of historical norms. Now I’d like to do the same thing for Vice President Kamala Harris, just before she wraps up the Democratic nomination next week. Since things like planetary heating, consequent mass migration, and evolving pandemics are making life ever more complex, I’m also including higher education in my table.

Here, without further ado, are the bare facts of how Harris stands among the pantheon of recent presidents, and as compared to the only other woman to precede Harris as a major-party candidate. All figures are as of actual or putative first dates of inauguration, and the source for all data is Wikipedia:

PoliticianHigher Education
School(s)and Years
Pre-Presidential
Political Office(s)
and Years

Total Years of Higher
Education
Total Pre-Presidential
Years in Political
Office(s)

Bill ClintonGeorgetown 4
Oxford 1
Yale Law 3
Arkansas Gov. 8
Arkansas AG 2
810
George W. BushYale 4
Harvard
Business 2
Texas Gov. 666
Barack ObamaColumbia 4
Harvard Law 3
Harvard Law 2
(as professor)
US Senator (IL) 4
Illinois
State Sen. 8
912
Hillary ClintonWellesley 4
Yale Law 3
Yale Child
Study Center 1
US Sec'y of State 4
US Senator (NY) 8
812
Donald J. TrumpPennsylvania 4None 40
Kamala HarrisVanier College
(Montreal) 1
Howard 4
UC Hastings Law 3
US Vice-President 4
US Senator (CA) 4
CA Attorney
General 6
San Francisco DA 7
821

The table speaks for itself. If elected, Kamala Harris will, upon inauguration, become the president with the most pre-inauguration political experience, and tied (three ways) for the second most higher education, among all presidents in the last three decades but one.

So let’s put aside the utter drivel of the “DEI candidate,” shall we? Based on her paper record, Harris is the best of the lot, save only President Biden, whose more-then-half-century in political office no other candidate, and possibly no other president, can match.


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07 August 2024

Back to Normal


I went to sleep last night with tears in my eyes, thinking about Tim Walz and Kamala Harris. What struck me was something simple yet wonderful. All we have to do is elect them, and we can get back to normal. That, I think, should be the Dems slogan for this campaign: simple, but absolutely necessary.

Harris represents our most important national credo: equality. It was right up front in our Declaration of Independence: “all . . . are created equal.” We’ve never fully implemented it, but we’ve made great progress. We are closer now to making it real than ever before, and everybody senses it.

But there’s another credo that we Americans once held dear and recently have lost sight of. We once were a country of normal people leading extraordinary lives. Our lives were full and gratifying because of the simple virtues. We were strong and brave, yes. But we also calm, smart, decent and kind. Walz represents those virtues like few other pols I’ve ever seen.

I didn’t know who he was until just weeks ago. Then I saw an interview on PBS. (Sorry, I can’t locate the link while traveling; it’s been buried by recent news.)

That interview, before his selection as VP, was a must see, a revelation, a wake-up call. As I watched Walz speak, my blood pressure dropped. Admiration replaced angst. This is what we used to be like, and can again.

Normalcy is not overrated. It’s what every sick, angry, stressed, aggrieved and resentful person most wants. It’s the baseline for a good life. We Americans once had it in our culture, and we can again.

Or we can become more like Russia. I was there, in Moscow, on fellowship, as Russia, too, once strove for normalcy. In 1993, I was the first-ever American law professor to teach at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (“MGIMO” in the Russian acronym). That’s the feeder school for the Russian foreign service and its feared security services, where Putin had gotten his higher training years before.

Before I arrived, Boris Yeltsin had stood on a tank outside the Russian Parliament Building and faced down a right-wing putsch. The great “Russian Spring” was just starting. MGIMO has just “retired” its teacher of “Socialist Economics” and had started teaching real economics. At a Moscow street market, I bought a Russian-language copy of Paul Samuelson’s two-volume text on economic science and donated it to the MGIMO library.

Yeltsin was unique in Russia’s closed Soviet hierarchy. As a young man, he had literally “ridden the rails” around Russia, like a hobo, discovering his huge nation and its diverse people. He later wrote a book about it, entitled “Sermon on a Given Theme.” That book got him elected president, and he pronounced the goal of making Russia “a normal country.”

Unfortunately, he failed. Today’s Russia, under Putin, is anything but normal. Life is hard there for everyone. All Russians are forced—by the authorities or by circumstances—to live hard lives of deprivation and sacrifice. Russia’s minorities, mostly in the Far East, are being sent, poorly trained and poorly equipped, into battle in Ukraine. There they die in combat. Their bodies are shipped back across the huge Eurasian continent to ever-filling graveyards.

All that hate, fear, harm, and suffering for one’s man’s ego and twisted “vision.”

This is not normal. It’s like our catastrophic misadventure in Vietnam, but on steroids.

If we make the wrong choice in this election, was can be like that again. We can sacrifice our principles, our quiet lives, our progress and our normalcy on the altar of one man’s deranged ego.

Or we can follow our hearts and our principles back to normalcy with Harris and Walz. We can love our children—and our cats—and give them the normal, quiet, lives of constant improvement and hope that we Americans once took for granted. We can be kind, confident, and helpful. We can love our neighbors and our enemies, and raise up the downtrodden, as Jesus once advised, and as our so-called “Evangelical Christians” seem to have forgotten. Back to normal. That should be the Dems’ slogan and our national goal for this election. Let’s leave the hate, revenge, retribution (for what?) and chaos behind.


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06 August 2024

Policy and Vision


It’s not often that I fail to make a point. But my last essay on this forum failed miserably. Out of 27 comments, only one seemed to get my point. So I’m trying again.

The point was the difference between a policy and a vision. The vision is the goal, the end, the desired result. The policy is the means of getting there.

One of the reasons why progressives have been losing to so-called “conservatives” for over forty years is that conservatives have campaigned on visions while progressive have campaigned mostly on policies. (Another reason is that conservatives have recognized the power of words and redefined them, while progressives, being virtually oblivious to language and focused on substance, have suffered grave defeats on the field of what I call “applied philology.” But that’s another story.)

If you want to get votes, the best way is with a vision, not a policy. Why? There may be more than one way (policy) to reach the vision. There usually is. As the old saying goes, “There’s more than one way to skin a cat.”

Some voters may like one way more than another. Some may hate a particular way and suspect you of promoting it even if you aren’t. So if you campaign on specific policies, rather than a universally desired vision, you inevitably lose some voters.

That’s pretty much the case with “gun control” as a policy. Republicans oppose it as “taking away our guns.” But there are other ways to reduce random massacres, including voluntary buybacks of automatic weapons, more careful gun-purchase rules, “red flag” laws, laws requiring guns to be secured while not being lawfully carried, and laws for treating mental illnesses that could lead to violence or goad police to commit violence. So if you describe your policy as “gun control,” you’re going to attract fewer voters than if you describe your vision as “a slaughter-free America.”

A second reason for promoting visions is that policies for getting there inevitably differ and must be negotiated in the process of realizing the vision. Even under the best of circumstances, you may start out with a policy of something like Medicare for All and end up with “Obamacare.” If you promote only the vision—giving more or most people affordable health insurance—you attract more voters, without getting bogged down in the details and attracting opposition to some.

My second major point about visions is that they’re best expressed in easy-to-recall slogans. Progressives don’t like to do this because they have a hard time abandoning their intellectual snobbery. They think slogans are “for the masses.” But that’s exactly right. Isn’t the whole point of elections to get “the masses” to vote for you?

A gruff, abrasive commenter to my failed story—most likely a troll—accused me of being from “marketing.” I partially took the bait, trying to explain why a having a vision is not really “marketing.” But in a sense it is marketing, and that sense is important for politics.

A big reason why Republicans have won many elections that they shouldn’t is that they are and remain, despite their current “populist” guise, the party of business. So they have access to all of the resources and skills of modern business, including advertising, marketing and sloganeering. They have used those skills over the last forty years to win many elections that they shouldn’t have won, at least if the voters truly understood what they were up to.

How did they do that? One way was with slogans, the same way their backers sell even marginal, defective and dangerous products.

I’m 79 years old. I’ve never smoked. Both my parents died of smoking-related illnesses, my father at the early age of 57. Since adulthood, I’ve been highly sensitive to smoke, so much so that I’ve moved my home several times to get away from it.

Yet I can’t forget the advertising slogan for a cigarette brand: “Lucky Strike Means Fine Tobacco: LSMFT.” I first heard it on TV in the early fifties, over 70 years ago. Absent senile dementia, I’ll probably take that slogan, involuntarily, to my grave. And I can still sing, in tune, the 1960s jingle for Brylcreem, a type of hair cream that I never even used. (I just looked it up on the Web and was astonished that it’s still sold, probably a new cream under the old name.)

That’s the power of slogans and jingles. They work. They work to sell products and services, even substandard and defective ones. Good ones stay in people’s minds for decades. They’ve worked for over a century, and their concoction and use occupy a large part of our American economy—the part including advertising, promotion, marketing and “public relations.”

So why would one party fail miserably to use these effective methods of promotion and persuasion while the other party consistently outperforms it by doing so? Intellectual snobbery trumps (pun intended!) pragmatism? You tell me.

Take the slogan “Make American Great Again.” It’s a great slogan, in part because it presents a positive vision without much substance. I venture to guess that everyone who votes in this upcoming election will, absent senile dementia, remember it for the rest of their lives. Why don’t the Dems have anything similar? because they’re too lofty? too smart? too proud? Would they rather be proud than president?

I hope I’ve made my points this time. They’re pretty simple. However pragmatic, even brilliant, it may be, a policy is not a vision. It’s always subject to objections and quibbles and later negotiation in realizing the underlying vision. Visions are invariably more attractive and easier to understand and follow, because they don’t have to sully themselves with means and methods.

And if a vision lends itself to a catchy, attractive and memorable slogan, so much the better. A lot of people who don’t spent their lives working with verbal abstractions vote, and the party that attracts most of them will probably win many elections it shouldn’t, just like the GOP.

I’ll close this short essay with a table. On the left are policies that most progressives support. Each of them at least hints at means that some voters may find undesirable. On the right are the corresponding visions, which are more general and don’t get into means.

You, the reader can decide in each case under which mantra—policy or vision—you would rather run. If most of your choices are in the right-hand column, you may want to consider adopting some of Republicans’ election-winning means, unless you’d rather be “pure” and lose.

There are still 95 days to go before a less effective approach could forfeit our democracy.

PolicyVision
Gun ControlA Slaughter-Free America
Abortion RightsBodily Autonomy for All
Restricting ImmigrationTaking the Best
Reforming PoliceTreating All Suspects the Same
Tariffs on ImportsGiving American Workers a Chance
Raising Minimum WagesGiving Workers a Voice through Unions
Deterring AggressionA World Without War


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03 August 2024

VP Harris: Please Give Us a Vision


Don’t get me wrong. I’m as enthused about VP Harris having all but clinched the Democratic nomination as everyone else. The meteoric rise of her campaign moved me from saying “Our species is doomed!” to thinking that we’ve got a real shot at saving our democracy and the Western Enlightenment. I’ve even written a post, more hope than analysis, suggesting a landslide in her favor.

But so far, I haven’t seen Harris provide us with anything like a winning vision. That worries me. As noted in an old post, a vision was the main thing —if not the only thing — that let George W. Bush get close enough to John Kerry for the Supreme Court to steal the election for him.

Kerry seemed to have it all: competence, dignity, restraint, modesty and decades of experience in politics (as compared to Bush’s six years as governor of Texas). Kerry had even demonstrated both courage and integrity: he had fought and had gotten wounded in Vietnam and then protested that war’s senselessness after he returned home. But Kerry’s new-England modesty betrayed him: he failed to defend himself when “Swift-Boated,” i.e., when GOP propagandists defined his valiant service and even more valiant protest as cowardice.

Yet in my view what really nailed the presidency for Bush was his “vision.” It had three elements, each expressed in a short slogan: (1) “No Child Left Behind,” (2) the “Ownership Society,” and (3), regarding the war in Iraq that Bush had started, “Fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here.” I will go to my grave believing that this “vision” made the younger Bush president—in my view the worst president of my 79 years after Trump.

“No Child Left Behind” was the most successful of these visions. It involved setting national standards to bring poor school districts in poor states up to snuff. Never mind that the federal intrusion into “state sovereignty” contradicted GOP dogma regarding “States’ Rights,” and later bogged down due to local resistance. The vision made a lot of progress and encouraged consideration of long-overdue national standards for educating our kids.

The label “Ownership Society” evoked a vision of more, if not most, families owning their own homes. Coming on the heels of the Crash of 2008 and the millions of foreclosures of “liar’s loans” that followed, it was a bit of a mirage. But like real desert mirages with visions of water on the sand, it worked to generate hope among the hopeless.

The slogan justifying Bush’s pointless War in Iraq was, of course, the greatest mirage of them all. As it turned out, we didn’t have to fight them over there at all. The next president, Barack Obama, dispatched Osama bin Laden, the architect of 9/11, with two helicopters and an elite team of Navy Seals.

But this near-lie, even more than the others, illustrates the essence of a political vision: it doesn’t have to be real, far less a workable twelve-point program. All it has to do is make rough sense, point in a positive direction, and inspire hope. The hard work comes later, if the candidate wins and the people insist on realizing the vision.

With all this in mind, here’s what I would recommend as parts of a “vision” for Harris, consistent with what little I know of her career and values:

1. “Pre-K for every Kid.” This same vision gave me whiplash with Wes Moore, Maryland’s governor. It led me to recommend him for president before Biden stepped down and anointed Harris. I had known zilch about him, except that he is Black in a state with a big Black population and that he had actual military combat experience—something increasing rare among our civilian leadership. So I watched his victory speech after he won the governorship.

It blew me away. Not only did Moore outline several key points of the Western Enlightenment, in his own words, in the few minutes of substance among all his victory thank yous. He also promised a year of pre-K for every kid in Maryland.

What blew me away was not just that promise, which vaguely mimicked the junior Bush’s “No Child Left Behind.” It was the reason that Moore gave. Somewhat later, he said that the science of early-childhood brain development shows that the first few years of life are crucial.

When have you ever heard a politician cite science, other than the science behind planetary heating, as a reason for doing anything? (BTW, with the aid of the Democrats’ “trifecta” in Maryland, Moore implemented his pre-K vision in his first few months as governor.)

So why not steal the junior Bush’s and Wes Moore’s thunder and reveal a vision of every child in America getting one or two years of pre-K education, guaranteed or incentivized by the federal government? If nothing else, such a vision would lay to rest JD Vance’s “childless cat lady” accusation for good.

2. “Bodily Autonomy for Everyone.” Believe it or not, bodily autonomy and inviolability are key concepts of the Western Enlightenment. They are among the foundational principles of Anglo-American law since Magna Carta. That’s why we have laws against rape, robbery, assault, kidnapping, false imprisonment and murder. That’s why even the state has to jump through hoops like jury trials and endless appeals just to jail a convicted criminal like our Demagogue.

Today, of course, the greatest threat to bodily autonomy is for women. Leave aside the fact that this assault on their autonomy is based primarily on religious faith, in violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of our First Amendment. Leave aside the fact that Roe v. Wade drew the line between the mother’s autonomy and that of the unborn fetus at the proper place, when the fetus is first viable outside the mother. The laws of many states now intrude outrageously into women’s many personal decisions about their health, life, personal and economic survival, and future prospects that no state legislature ought to be making (let alone in the abstract) for any sentient woman.

But the concept of bodily autonomy has far broader application, for example, in cases of mental illness, juvenile crime, homelessness, and undocumented immigration. If you want a vision of a just and humane society, bodily autonomy of ordinary people should loom large in all of these fields, including cases of separating undocumented immigrants from their children.

3. “Workers who are Union Strong.” The conflict between workers and their bosses is older than the so-called “slaves” who built the Pyramids. (Actually, modern history reveals that they were not all slaves: many were skilled workers who were treated rather well, if only because they had unique skills.) When I studied Spanish in a course for geezers, we coincidentally covered the rise of serfs to workers and skilled laborers in the medieval history of what is now Spain.

The basic problem has always been the same. There have always been more workers than bosses, but bosses always had the whip hand (literally, during slavery) by virtue of the structure of society and the distribution of wealth and power in it.

Twentieth-century laws restricting child labor and maximum working hours helped a lot. But the real progress during the last century was due to the rise of labor unions.

That’s why the bosses, through the action of their Republican Party, tried hard to kill labor unions. They did so with so-called “right to work” laws, laws making it hard to collect union dues, and the importation of cheap migrant labor made docile by being mostly undocumented and so susceptible to instant deportation for just trying to organize. (At the same time, Republicans made a virtue out of union busting by demagoguing the competition from immigrant labor.)

The simple fact is that US workers never had it so good as when labor unions reigned supreme, in the two or three decades after WWII. And the simple fact is that workers and their unions are not stupid: if foreign or internal competition or supply-chain difficulties require them to make compromises, or even sacrifices, they can and will, to save their jobs. But who should better make those decisions, the workers themselves in democratic votes in their unions, the bosses in their endless quest for profit above all, or pols in Washington heavily influenced by boss-paid lobbyists?

The rise of union organizing among Amazon workers and ride-share workers suggests that American labor is once again beginning to “get” these fundamental historical truths. Think there might be a few more labor votes for a candidate who can explain all this?

5. “A Just Society.” Who doesn’t want that? But what does it mean? I think it means a society in which people don’t get stopped more for minor traffic violations because of the color of their skin, their gender or gender identity, or their accent or religion. It definitely means a society in which people don’t get killed more by police for any of those reasons. It also means a society in which any kid capable of a good education can get one, as far as he or she an go.

A pol can hint, with great justification, that it might mean some kind of compensation for people and families who’ve been subjected to systematic discrimination in the past, such as the Black farmers who lost or nearly lost their land because of discrimination in loans, farm subsidies, etc. (Perhaps it’s best to avoid the word “reparations’ in this context, if only because it’s been demagogued to death. Let’s all heed the lesson of Bernie Sanders, an insightful, courageous and admirable pol who “led with his chin” by labeling himself a “socialist.”)

I could go on and on, but you get the idea. A “vision” is not a ten-point plan, far less a complete solution to difficult social or international problems. It’s a direction and a goal, expressed in the simplest, most comprehensible terms possible.

It doesn’t have to be instantly realizable, and it doesn’t have to be backed by a workable plan. That comes later, in Congress, or in all the drama and agony of national politics. Remember how long it took for “Obamacare” to become accepted, even though it gave tens of millions of Americans reliable and affordable health insurance for the first time?

Republican operatives do a great job of creating visions for their candidates, as the Bush-Kerry race showed. Even Trump has a vision, albeit a somewhat vague one: “Make America Great Again.” He also has a darker vision of vengeance and retribution for people who feel disrespected and ignored (mostly because he eggs on those feelings).

If VP Harris can give us visions of her own, just a bit more detailed, specific, hopeful and oriented toward the average voter, her grip on the White House is almost assured. I hope the Democrats and her staff are capable of that hardly insuperable task.

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