Could Trump be Out by Year End?

I think the answer is “yes.” The instrument of his removal would be Vice President JD Vance. Because he was independently elected, he is immune from being fired like the rest of the Cabinet. The mechanism would be Amendment 25 to the Constitution, specifically Section 4, which gives the Vice President the power to initiate the removal process.

Here’s how it would work. Vance would transmit to the designated officers the required declaration that Trump is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office[.]” Trump would likely respond with the counter-declaration that Section 4 permits. The issue would then go to Congress, which would decide. If Congress could muster a two-thirds vote of both Houses to sustain Vance’s declaration and reject Trump’s, Vance would “continue to discharge [the President’s] duties as Acting President[,]” presumably to the end of the current term.

That’s what Amendment 25 says. It was adopted precisely to address the current situation, in which the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office[.]” Unlike impeachment and removal, it does not require legal process, let alone a lengthy indictment (by “impeachment” in the House) and conviction by a two-thirds vote, after a detailed “trial” in the Senate.

Article 25 is designed to provide a non-legal, non-judicial process to remove an unfit president, based on nothing more than the considered judgment of a majority of the Cabinet, backed up, if necessary, by a similar judgment and vote of two-thirds of both Houses of Congress. It is not designed to punish or correct law-breaking, but to save the nation from a president who, for medical or mental reasons, has lost the capacity to serve.

Doesn’t Trump meet that condition, when he asked voters to pretend he was on the ballot and then excused the electoral debacle for his party that followed by noting that he wasn’t really? when his “closing argument” to the voters consisted of unhinged ruminations on his planned renovation of the White House and the beauty of the reflecting pool?

Practicalities favor the removal. Vance is an intelligent man and, from all appearances, a world-class opportunist. He might jump at this opportunity to step into the top job after only two years in the Senate and two as VP.

Two-thirds of both Houses of Congress would vote to remove, if only to save the nation from further chaos. Republicans would have the additional motivation of avoiding further blunders and tragedies for which they and their party would be blamed. Most, if not all, might finally find the courage to dispense with the man they secretly despised all along, but couldn’t summon the courage to publicly oppose while his popularity appeared invincible. Democrats would hope to have a president and a (future) minority party they could work with, although some might wish to see the Republican Party destroy itself further, even at the risk of national self-destruction.

The only significant impediment might be getting a majority of the Cabinet to sign on. Unqualified members (and there are several!) might refuse to sign on, knowing that there would be no chance of their serving under a rational and thoughtful president.

But Amendment 25 only requires a majority. Surely enough could be credibly promised a continuing position to manage that. Even Hegseth might be kept on, to strut his bold chin and his pushups while competent flag officers managed the Defense Department under the direct supervision of Acting President Vance.

There are means, namely Amendment 25. There is motive: the boundless ambition of JD Vance and sentient Republicans’ desire to avoid their party becoming losers for an entire generation. And there is method: a simple declaration of JD Vance, followed by a vote of two-third of members of Congress who would like to save the nation and their asses.

The very process of removing Trump might jump-start a bit of cooperation, if not camaraderie, between the two parties, whose bitter enmity Trump has fostered as part of his narcissistic lust for personal power. Why not get the process going soon?