29 September 2024
Could Nasrallah’s Death be a Game Changer?
1. History. In its guise as Persia, Iran is a very old nation with a rich history. It fought a big imperial war with the Ottoman Empire in the mid-eighteenth century. After a stalemate with the Ottomans, the Shah then in power attacked the Mughal Empire in India, the Ottomans (again), Georgia, and Dagestan. At the end of all this carnage, the borders of Persia/Iran ended up exactly where they had begun. This same phenomenon occurred after we Americans and our allies enticed Saddam Hussein’s Iraq to attack Iran shortly after its Islamic Revolution. In that 1980-1981 war, over a million people lost their lives on one side or the other. Again, Iran’s borders remained right where they had been at the start. It is not a nation with a long or recent history of successful conquest. Whatever else the Ayatollahs may be, they are good students of history. Might that be why they operate through proxies today, like (in order of decreasing power) Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houtis? Bear in mind that, while all Iran’s big imperial wars were going on, today’s “big powers” on the Arabian Peninsula, including what eventually became Saudi Arabia, were nomadic tribes of traders on camelback. 2. Age.Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 85 years old. Our own supreme leader, Joe Biden, just had the wisdom and patriotism to step down at 81 and let the next generation take the reins. Our ex-president, Donald Trump, seems on a path to lose his bid to regain the White House, although he’s “only” 77. Do you think that Iran’s people, over 60% of whom are under thirty—let alone all the mid-level leaders in between—are eager to let their national and individual fates be decided in geriatric councils? 3. Islam and how it revived. Today we think of Iran as a rogue nation ruled by a bunch of religious fanatics, including the Ayatollahs and the Assembly of Experts, who are elected from amongcandidates they and the Ayatollahs choose. But Iran was not always so, not until recently. In the early 1950s, Iran was a democracy, with an elected leader named Mohammed Mossadegh. Like many emerging leaders in what’s now the EU, Mossadegh was a mild democratic socialist. During the Cold War, we feared that Iran, by trending toward socialism, would drift into the Soviet camp. So with the help of the Brits’ spooks, our CIA engineered a coup, toppled Mossadegh, and arranged for a return of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (then a sort of titular monarch like the Queen of England, but in exile) to real power. With Western help, he built up a dreaded secret police, the Savak, and then ruled with an iron fist, filling up Evin prison with political prisoners and torturing many there. Apparently, the only thing strong enough to loosen the Shah’s iron grip was religion. So in 1979, Islamic revolutionaries toppled the Shah and held Americans and a few Canadians hostage for 444 days. The ruling Ayatollah released the hostages on the first day of Ronald Reagan’s new administration, cementing his reputation as a foreign-policy magician. In this way did Iran’s religious leaders secure the best possible revenge: one served cold. They enhanced the undeserved reputation of a president who used his undeniable charm in the service of selfishness, private wealth and big business, thus helping produce the amoral, thoroughly corrupt society we have today. (Evidence of cahoots between Islamic Iran and the Reagan Administration became stronger with the subsequent “Iran-Contra” scandal, in which the Reagan Administration bought arms from Iran to be shipped to right-wing counterrevolutionaries in Nicaragua.) 4. Proxies.Whatever else the Ayatollahs may be, they are not stupid. They have spent their lives steeped in abstract thought, mostly about religion and Iran’s tortured history. If you want to know why they do virtually all their dirty work through proxies like Hezbollah and the Houtis, you need look no further than today’s ruins of Gaza and parts of Beirut. However much you may protest Irans’ proxies’ acts of violence, you have to admit one thing. No part of Tehran or Qom (Iran’s religious capital) looks or recently has looked anything like the ruins of Gaza or the parts of Beirut hit with 2,000-pound bombs in Nasrallah’s assassination. Through their violent proxies, the Ayatollahs and their Assembly of Experts have kept Iran’s people from the devastation and suffering of war, with which they are intimately familiar from their long history and their Pyrrhic stalemate with Iraq as recently as 33 years ago. Think maybe they’d like to keep things that way? 5. Nasrallah’s Assassination. If Iran’s Ayatollahs and their Assembly of Experts ever hoped to establish a wider Islamic Revolution throughout their neighborhood, Nasrallah’s death has disabused them of that notion. In their eyes, he was the “best of the best.” He was charismatic, a superb motivator, a gifted organizer, and adroit (until now) at keeping himself and his leadership safe from Israel’s Mossad. Now he is gone, as is much of Hezbollah’s lesser leadership. Now Hamas’ leaders, if alive at all, are either in secret exile or holed up in tunnels in Gaza, trapped like rats. The Ayatollahs know this, and I think they will look for any sensible way out. So will their new, more moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who has minority Kurdish roots. Two final points. I have never believed that the Ayatollahs were hell bent on developing nuclear weapons. They are religious men with a bit of a crazy adulation for martyrdom. But perishing in a mass casualty event that kills hundreds of thousands and destroys a whole city, leaving it radioactive and uninhabitable for decades or centuries, is not martyrdom. It’s useless, senseless and catastrophic destruction of human life and civilization. The Ayatollahs are smart enough and (I believe) religious enough to figure that out. So why do the centrifuges keep spinning? And why does Iran hide some underground nuclear facilities from international inspectors? In my view these are bargaining chips, to be surrendered for concessions that will finally bring some benefit to Iranians from the Ayatollahs’ tortured rule, including revival of their failing economy. Lastly, why do the Ayatollahs seem to hate Israelis so? Are they really anti-Semitic? I think not: Iran has been dealing with foreign religions, including during the Crusades, for millennia. To me, the answer is simple: they view Israel as an outside power imposed on their region by us, and they hate us. They and much of the Iranian people hate us because we deposed their first democratic leader and then, three decades later, incited Saddam’s Iraq to make a war on them that killed roughly half a million of theirs, only later to invade Saddam’s Iraq and oversee his execution. Iran is a nation in a difficult region with a long history. It was busy fighting imperial wars long before the Enlightenment and colonization of North American that spawned our nation began. Its people are proud and rather well educated. (I got to know an Iranian student at Berkeley during the sixties and found him smart, funny, and a good person, with perhaps an outsized interest in American girls.) Again, 60% of its population is under 30, so Iran has vast capacity for change. As for Russia, Iran knows the history of its centuries-long wars with Islamic lands to its south. Do you think Iran’s leaders are really eager to see Russia conquer all of Ukraine? Are they sure that Putin will next turn his imperial attentions to the rest of Europe, rather than next seek to annex the various Islamic “stans” to its south? With Nasrallah dead and Iran’s dreams of victorious proxy wars in shambles, now is the time to treat its leaders and its people as equals, as we have never done. Now is a time to negotiate seriously for regional stability without preconditions. And we could well begin by apologizing, as a nation, for the damage we have done to Iran and its people by deposing Mossadegh and inciting Saddam’s Iraq to attack it. Of course none of this can begin, and none of it can even be discussed, until our current election is resolved. But the Harris campaign could begin, in secret, to make progress in this regard a priority of the Harris Administration. They might even borrow a page from Richard Nixon in Vietnam and declare a “secret plan to end the war.” Their “secret plan” would be old-fashioned, even handed, respectful diplomacy, based on the advantages that recent events confer and the senselessly destructive trend of the ongoing conflict, which all involved can appreciate. For brief descriptions of and links to recent posts, click here. For an inverse-chronological list with links to all posts after January 23, 2017, click here. For a subject-matter index to posts before that date, click here. Permalink to this post
25 September 2024
How the Diné People, Whom We Call “Navajo,” Can Help Save America, Again
23 September 2024
Seven True Tales from Japan, Our Strongest Ally
16 September 2024
Twenty-Eight Reasons to Vote for Kamala Harris
10 September 2024
Cause and Effect I: What Will you Do? (Mass Deportation)
08 September 2024
Trump’s Word Salads: Three Served Raw, without Editing
“She destroyed the city of San Francisco. It’s — and I own a big building there. It’s — no — I shouldn’t talk about this. But that’s OK. I don’t give a damn because that’s what I’m doing. [cheers from crowd] I should say it’s the finest city in the world — telling ‘Get the hell out of there’ — right? But I can’t do that. I don’t care. You know. I lost billions . . . billions of dollars. You know? Somebody here . . . ‘What do you think you lost?’ I said, ‘Probably two-three billion.’ They said, ‘You think you’d do it again?’ And that’s the least of it. Nooobody [pause] . . . They always say . . . I don’t know if you know . . . [inaudible] Lincoln was horribly treated . . . Uhhh . . . Jefferson was pretty horribly . . . Andrew Jackson, they say, was the worst of all . . . that he was treated worse than any other president. And, I said, ‘do that study again,’ because I think there’s nobody close [laughter from crowd] to Trump. I even got shot. And who the hell knows where that came from, right?”The Hannibal Lecter rant [Scroll down for Newsmax clip], ostensibly on the subject of immigration:
“‘Silence of the Lamb’ [sic: the title of the movie is actually “Silence of the Lambs,” plural]. . . . Has anyone ever seen ‘The Silence of the Lamb’? The late, great Hannibal Lecter [a fictional killer and cannibal], is a wonderful man. He oftentimes would have a friend for dinner. [slight laughter from crowd]. Remember the last thing? ‘Excuse me, I’m about to have a friend for dinner.’ And this poor doctor walks by, . . . ‘I’m about to have a friend for dinner,’ but Hannibal Lecter. Congratulations! The late, great Hannibal Lecter. . . . We have people . . . that are being released into our country, that we don’t want in our country . . . .”Response to this question, posed at the Economic Club of New York on September 5, 2024: “If you win in November, do you commit to prioritizing legislation to make child care affordable and, if so, what specific piece of legislation will you advance?” Here’s Trump’s answer:
“Well, I would do that, and we’re sitting down here . . . . I was, uh, was Senator Marco . . . Rubio, and my daughter Ivanka was so . . . impactful on that issue. It’s a very important issue . . . but, when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about . . . that . . . because . . . the child care . . . is child care. Couldn’t . . . uhh . . . it’s something . . . You have to have it. In this country, you have to have it. But, when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about by . . . taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to, but they’ll get used to it very quickly, and it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us, but they’ll have a very substantial tax when the send product into our country, and those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers we’re talking about, including child care, that it’s gonna take care. We’re gonna have . . . I look forward to having no deficits within a fairly short period of time, coupled with the reductions that I told you about, on waste and fraud and all of the other things that are going on in our country, because I have to stay with child care. I want to stay with child care. But those numbers are small relative to the kind of economic numbers that I’m talking about, including growth. . . . But growth also headed up by ‘what’s the plan’ is . . . uhh . . . that I just told you about. We’re gonna be taking in trillions of dollars and, uh, as much as child care, uh, as talked about, is, relatively speaking, not very expensive compared to the kind of numbers we’ll be taking in.” “We’re gonna make this into an incredible country that can afford to take care of its people. And then we’ll worry about the rest of the world. Let’s help other people. But we’re gonna take care of our country first. This is about America first. This is about ‘Make America Great Again.’ We have to do it. Because right now we’re a failing nation. [weak applause]”My Comment. Few, if any, reporters get these rants down verbatim. I suppose that reporters don’t like excess verbiage, let alone when it doesn’t make sense. But here the lack of sense is precisely the point, isn’t it? When reporters cut, digest or summarize the rants, what they publish makes sense out of nonsense. It shows Trump through a reality distortion field, not as he is. For the guy who aspires to be the sole person authorized to start a nuclear war that would extinguish our species, aren’t rants “news” when they make no sense and scream “disordered thinking,” if not “derangement”? Shouldn’t they be shown full bore and transcribed for reading in their entirely, as I’ve laboriously done above? The people who attend Trump’s rallies and laugh or cheer at everything he says are probably beyond reason. But don’t the rest of the voters—especially those still trying to make up their minds—deserve to see Trump as he is? Don’t they silently beg to read his “speeches” as given, without editing or “prettying up”? When reporters make logic and sense by picking the few sentences that seem to say something out of a minutes-long brain fart, aren’t they effectively, if unwittingly, serving as part of Trump’s campaign team? Aren’t they therefore complicit in the possible near-term destruction of our Republic? Inquiring minds want to know . . . For brief descriptions of and links to recent posts, click here. For an inverse-chronological list with links to all posts after January 23, 2017, click here. For a subject-matter index to posts before that date, click here. Permalink to this post